With 17 Survivors remaining, and the tribes all shook up, some of the castaways are gasping for breathe in boiling hot water, while others are safer than Michael Phelps in a lifejacket floating in a lazy river.

Here is what each of the remaining castaways have to do in order to make it out of episode 4 alive.

(Ranked in order from most likely to least likely to be voted out tonight.)

17. Woo

Hell hath no fury like an Abi-Maria scorned. And hell REALLY hath no fury like an Abi-Maria scorned twice. Woo has completely lost any trust that Abi still had with him.

So what can Woo do to save himself?

He has two options. Convince Savage and Tasha that if they have any hopes of winning a pre-merge challenge, they have to keep the tribe strong and vote out Varner. If Savage, Tasha, Varner and Abi are a foursome, they will end up at tribal again next week. If Woo can swing Savage and Tasha, and get rid of Varner, Angkor could be a powerful 4 person tribe.

Or, Woo could search high and low for a hidden immunity idol clue, pull some ninja-like moves at the immunity challenge, and secure himself safety at tribal.

16. Jeff

Varner is in the same position as Woo, except for the fact that he has not betrayed Abi, and she will not make it a point to go after him. He does, however, need to convince Savage and Tasha that either Abi is more of a physical challenge liability (not true, but he could give it a shot) or that Woo is more of a mental challenge liability (true.)
Varner needs to give up the hope of simply picking off Savage and Tasha, and focus on putting the target on Abi or Woo. Additionally, he needs to stop playing lip sync battle with the opposing tribes.

15. Stephen

Stephen is the biggest wild card in the game, and despite being in the majority “alliance” on his tribe, he could easily be seen as the most disposable. If Kelly isn’t in trouble with her tribe for interacting with Varner at the last immunity challenge, Stephen could be seen as the biggest post-merge mental threat, and get the boot tonight.

To survive tonight, Stephen should forget about his original Bayon allegiances, and try to convince the three girls (Kelly, Monica, and Kimmi) that Spencer and Jeremy will be massive post merge physical threats. Stephen could cruise to the merge with the girls, and eliminate the strong guys one at a time.

He must be extra smooth though, because if Jeremy catches wind of him trying to form an alliance behind his back, he will use his idol and come after Fishbach with a vengeance.

14. Kelly

Wiglesworth is getting dangerously close to the bottom of this weekly countdown. I worry for Wigles that her tribe is going to be pissed at her for trying to associate with Varner at the last challenge. The last thing they want is for her to reunite with him at the merge. The best thing for Kelly would be for Varner to get voted out tonight, so her tribe would not have to worry about her making the merge with him.

If Bayon loses immunity tonight, it is likely Stephen or Kelly is getting the boot. Kelly’s only hope would be to convince the others that she is stronger than half of her tribe. If she proposed to Jeremy and Spencer to form a solid four way alliance with the three of them and Kimmi (!), they would have some “wiggle” room to vote off Spencer and Monica and still have a somewhat strong tribe. If Kelly goes, the tribe is down to Jeremy and Spencer as their only strong members.

13. Terry

Deitz could be royally screwed tonight if Ta Keo loses immunity. Not only is he in the minority on his tribe, the only other person that is in the minority has immunity. I am assuming the tribe would split their votes between Kelley and Terry in case one of them has immunity, and on a re-vote Deitz would not have a leg to stand on, and would be the first to go from the new Ta Keo.

If I were Deitz, the one thing I would be sure to do, is to keep reminding Joe about the impending merger, and how strong he is. Golden Boy Joe needs as many strong men make the merge as possible, because the more strong guys that are around, the less of a target Joe is. If Deitz can somehow convince Joe and Keith to vote off one of the ladies, the big boys could run this game post merge.

12. Abi-Maria

There are many negatives adjectives one could use when describing Abi-Maria. Some may say she is loud, abrasive, opinionated, and argumentative. But with those qualities, comes honesty, and loyalty. Abi-Maria does not hide her feelings, and once she is loyal, she will not screw her allies over.

Tonight, if Angkor loses, the only thing that should get her voted out is if she is persistent on voting out Woo when Savage and Tasha have already decided to vote off Varner. Savage and Tasha may decide to vote with Woo and drop Abi-Maria while they still can. Because if Abi makes the merge, she will be everyone’s best friend that they want to carry to the finals.

11. Monica

The good thing for Monica is that it should be impossible for her to get voted out until we hear her speak. Therefore: keep quite and don’t mess up any challenges, and Monica should be just fine. If Monica can fly under the radar for just a few more weeks, and make the merge, she should come out as clean as a whistle when the game turns into a bloodbath in a few weeks.

Monica needs to sit out challenges, so she can’t mess them up. And shut her mouth, so she doesn’t piss anyone off. Additionally, she should keep tight with the ladies, as Wiglesworth desperately needs her right now, and Kimmi is always in need of friends.

10-7, Ciera, Joe, Kass, Keith

They are all lumped together, because they are all in a very similar position in the game right now. They are all in the majority alliance on Ta Keo. Even if they lose immunity, the only way they can be voted off is if they do not split the vote between Kelley and Terry. If they split the vote, and Kelley uses her idol (which she will) Terry goes. If they do not split the vote, and Kelley uses her idol (which she will) one of the four of them will be voted out: whoever Kelley chooses (most likely Joe or Ciera, as they could be post merge threats.)

With all the combined Survivor experience that the four of these major players have, there is NO WAY they are not smart enough to split the votes.

Regardless, the odds of them losing an immunity when there are three tribes, is extremely thin. Split the votes, and they will all cruise on to week 5.

6-5. Savage, Tasha

What a difference a week can make. While I am pumped up for my man Savage’s epic turn-around, I am not going to get too excited because I am sure it is only a temporary victory.
The ONLY thing Savage and Tasha have to do this week is coddle Abi-Maria. Make her feel special, and make her feel loved. No matter what happens, just go along with what she wants. If Savage and Tasha want to vote out Jeff, but Abi wants to vote out Woo…. WHO CARES…. VOTE OUT WOO. Does it really matter to Savage and Tasha if Woo or Varner is voted out? Just survive a few more weeks, reconnect with the original Bayon, and run this game until the end.

Whatever you do, do not let Woo or Varner find the idol, and do not piss off Abi.

4. Spencer

Much like Savage and Tasha, Spencer has found new life in the game. Starting a “bromance” with Jeremy is the best thing that Spencer can do. Jeremy is ruling the roost at Bayon, and as long as he is in his good graces, he will not be going anywhere.
And if one of Jeremy’s alliance members get voted out before the merge (Tasha, Savage, Keith, Joe) except Spencer to be right there to fill the void.

Bottom line: Forget the fact that you told Wiglesworth you were going to form super close relationships with her and the rest of the original Ta Keo tribe two weeks ago. Keep telling Jeremy your “heart-felt” stories about you not loving your girlfriend, and you will be golden.

3. Kimmi

Who the hell would have Predicted that:
A) Kimmi would be so safe on a tribe. Ever.
B) Kimmi could be so quiet. Ever.

Apparently these past 14 years have been a major growing experience for Kimmi, as she is basically a complete 180 degrees from the Kimmi we saw back in 2001.

Only advice for Kimmi… If someone wants to wag a finger in your face, or eat chicken, just let them, and slowly walk back to the hammock.

2. Kelley

What Kelley needs to do tonight if Ta Keo loses immunity: Use the idol and vote out Keith (Kelley does not know who, if anyone, has the hidden idol.) She should expect, however, that

Keith does not even know what a hidden immunity idol is, and therefore, will not play one.
If she can somehow get Keith or Joe out, she has a solid chance at an all-girl alliance at new Ta Keo. And Kelley is in DESPERATE need of an alliance.

1. Jeremy

The only thing that Jeremy has to do tonight, is not get caught with his idol. Hide the idol, bury the idol, or stick it up your butt. But, do not get caught with that idol, and Jeremy will continue to dominate Survivor: Second Chances.